Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

(Originally published as an 𝕏 article, April 12, 2026.)

For the past few hours, amid a growling southwest wind (50+ mph gusts), I have been staring out my window towards nearby Iron Mountain, contemplating the physical realities of the United States attempting to blockade all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports.

Admiral James Stavridis, USN, Ret., an ever-present “authoritative voice” in the imperial infosphere, offered his thoughts on the matter earlier today in a short (5 min) interview on CNN.

The intrepid admiral prescribes two carrier strike groups, a dozen additional destroyers, and an unspecified number of “frigates” to position themselves in the Gulf of Oman.

There are three destroyers currently attached to CSG-3 (USS Abraham Lincoln), and four destroyers attached to CSG-10 (USS George H. W. Bush).

There are reportedly six independent destroyers currently operating in the Arabian Sea, and two independent destroyers in the Red Sea.

There is one littoral combat ship (”frigate”) in the Arabian Sea.

So, even if the two destroyers in the Red Sea dare to run the gauntlet of the Bab-el-Mandeb in order to join the main fleet, there would still be four more destroyers required for the order of battle Stavridis proposes for the Gulf of Oman.

But, importantly, Stavridis also says a successful blockade will require at least another half-dozen US warships on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, in the Persian Gulf proper.

He also says the naval power of the Arab Oil Sheikdoms must be committed to the operation.

“So you try and bottle it up on both sides,” Stavridis explained, speaking of the Strait of Hormuz.

In total, the Stavridis order of battle for the blockade consists of:

• 2 Nimitz-class aircraft carriers

• 20+ Arleigh Burke-class destroyers

• an unspecified number of “frigates”

• an unspecified number of warships from the Arab oil kingdoms

• presumably the USS Tripoli and its aircraft and Marines

• presumably the USS Boxer and its aircraft and Marines

• presumably a Brigade Combat Team from the 82nd Airborne Division

• most of the elite American special operations forces on the planet

• American/Israeli/Arab air forces

What does Iran have to face the force Stavridis proposes?

• at least hundreds of fast attack boats carrying anti-ship missiles, torpedoes, and short-range vertical launch air defense missiles

• hundreds of unmanned high-speed surface drones with potent warheads

• at least hundreds of anti-ship cruise missiles

• thousands of short- and medium-range anti-ship ballistic missiles

• thousands of aerial attack drones of various types

• at least hundreds of surveillance drones

• numerous stealthy mini-submarines carrying potent torpedoes

• thousands of both Iranian and Russian MANPADs

• an unknown number of Iranian and Russian short-, medium-, and long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, including the P-358 and P-359 loitering anti-aircraft missiles, which have shown impressive capabilities

• remote-controlled mines that are anchored on the sea floor until remotely activated

• substantial real-time intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) provided by Iran’s Russian and Chinese friends

Assuming the US really does undertake to enforce its selective blockade of Iranian shipping via hard-fisted military measures — including a significant proportion of operational US naval power — it will constitute the greatest escalation of the Iran War up to this point.

But make no mistake, this is precisely the kind of battle for which Iran has prepared for the past quarter century.

This is the battle Iran WANTS to fight.

How it all turns out remains to be seen. But I remain convinced the American loss threshold is extremely low, and even if just TWO destroyers are sunk or severely damaged in coming days, it will represent an unprecedented disaster, and add an exclamation point to the decisive strategic defeat the United States has already incurred.

And, if an aircraft carrier is effectively disabled by a few drone or missile strikes, it will represent an unprecedented military and geopolitical catastrophe for the already rapidly disintegrating empire.

The scent of great danger is in the wind.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

(Originally published as an 𝕏 article, March 18, 2026.)

I have long argued that, in my estimation, the security and continued sovereignty of Iran has become an existential imperative for both Russia and China.

Almost no one agrees with my assessment of this situation. Vanishingly few geopolitical analysts believe Russia or China will step in to prevent the attempted destruction of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the hands of the United States and Israel, such as we are now witnessing.

Just this morning US President Donald J. Trump publicly mused on his intention to “finish off” Iran.

In an unprecedented series of assassinations, the United States and Israel have, over the course of the past several days, murdered the Iranian head of state, Ali Khamenei, and numerous other political and military leaders of the Islamic Republic.

It is a shocking development that comes on the heels of US/Ukrainian assassinations of Russian military leaders, a recent US/Ukrainian attempt to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the kidnapping and imprisonment of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

The empire has gone rogue.

The Anglo-American imperial powers-that-be have long aspired to divide both Russia and Iran into multiple bite-sized pieces that can be more easily dominated and their vast natural resources leisurely consumed over the course of multiple generations.

The conquest and balkanization of Russia and Iran is also viewed as the one sure way to impede the rise of China as the next great world power.

This is what the otherwise eroding American empire is now attempting to achieve.

Many very smart people believe they will succeed — and it is not hard to understand why they think so.

But I remain persuaded that both Russia and China will “draw the line” here and now. I think they have no other choice. And I believe they have been planning accordingly for several years now.

What course of action they will take remains to be seen, but I am convinced both Moscow and Beijing correctly perceive an existential threat in what the Americans and Israelis are attempting to do in West Asia.

It has now been almost two years since I wrote the following essay that further explains my reasoning along these lines:

All for One and One for All

(Originally published April 12, 2024: All for One and One for All)

Russia, China, and Iran have now formed a de facto military and economic alliance — what they prefer to call a “partnership”.

In the case of Russia and China, a comprehensive full-spectrum partnership has emerged: military, economic, and monetary.

Trade between Russia and China has exploded both quantitatively and qualitatively.

Importantly, trade settlement is overwhelmingly denominated in rubles and renminbi. Use of the dollar and its international mechanisms is being aggressively deprecated.

Russia and China now conduct regular joint naval and air patrols of the western Pacific, from Alaska to the South China Sea.

Russia, China, and Iran conduct regular joint exercises in the Arabian Sea. Those exercises have increased in both scope and frequency in recent years.

Both Russia and China are investing vast sums of capital in Iran, much of it in the energy sector and in ambitious transportation projects aiming to construct fast and efficient trade corridors linking China, Iran, and Russia as primary nodes of Eurasian commerce.

Arms and technology transfers between the three countries have reached unprecedented levels.

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov just concluded several days of talks with Chinese leaders, including both Wang Yi and Xi Jinping. In its report of the talks, the Chinese government’s flagship media organ, Global Times, summarized (in the words of prominent CPC commentator Li Haidong) the current state of the Russia/China relationship:

“China and Russia will not target any third party, but if hegemonic forces threaten China and Russia, or threaten world peace, China and Russia will stand together and fight to protect their own interests and safeguard world peace together.”

It is increasingly evident that Russia, China, and Iran recognize that an attack against any one of them would constitute an existential threat to them all. The strategic interests of all three countries are now inextricably intertwined.

Most importantly, they are united in a single overriding strategic objective: to dismantle the dominion of the long-reigning Anglo-American empire.

Naturally, the rapidly waning global hegemon is not inclined to relinquish its throne without a fight. What form that fight takes remains to be seen. But if the empire attempts to preserve its so-called “rules-based international order” via force of arms, it is essential to understand this incontrovertible reality:

In order for the United States to make war against any ONE of Russia, China, or Iran, it would be necessary to effectively vacate every major US base on the planet in order to concentrate enough military power to undertake the mission.

In a putative war between the United States and Iran, both Russia and China would actively support Iran. I’m not suggesting Russian or Chinese forces would fight alongside Iranians — although that could happen. But it would likely not be necessary. Iran would simply be supplemented with arms and other logistical necessities from both its partners — and quite possibly taken under their nuclear umbrella in an explicit act of deterrence.

Additionally, in consequence of the US weakening its force posture in Europe and the western Pacific in a bid to militarily subdue Iran, Russia and China would be enabled to apply immense pressure to western logistics, trade, and political influence in those regions. This is not to suggest that China would invade Taiwan or Russia would invade the Baltics or Poland. They would need only to exert their dominant influence in what were previously considered to be unassailable American imperial domains in east Asia and Europe.

The empire is stretched so thin and its potential for power projection is so diluted that undertaking even one Big War would be enough to bring the entire house of cards tumbling down.

This is the harsh reality the Masters of Empire are now facing, and no amount of mythologizing about the “limitless” power at their disposal can change it.

There is a vast difference between imagined power and the actual ability to project and sustain power against the adversaries the United States military must now face and defeat in order to prevent or even meaningfully delay the end of American global hegemony.

And, to the extent Russia, China, and Iran are determined to act all for one and one for all, they represent a combination of global military and economic power that cannot be defeated.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

(Originally published as an 𝕏 article, March 6, 2026.)

The dominant narrative in relation to the Iran War is that the United States and Israel are mercilessly mauling the Iranians, and are on the verge of administering the coup de grâce, after which Iran will obeisantly submit to unconditional surrender, and bathe Emperor Trump’s feet with their penitent tears.

At least that’s the Hollywood version of the tale.

Here in the real world, American stockpiles of long-range stand-off strike munitions (Tomahawk: ~900 nautical miles; JASSM: ~600 nautical miles) have reached a critical stage.

In the case of the US, it is almost certain that usable Tomahawk inventory is now no more than ~2500, perhaps as few as ~2000 when you consider how many “duds” there have been in recent years.

They may have ~3000 JASSM left.

So, about ~5000 subsonic cruise missiles to finish off the job of subduing Iran, and still have enough to fight elsewhere if the need arises.

But it’s already not even remotely enough to go up against Russia or China. They would be gone in a matter of days.

It’s a pitiful state of affairs for the erstwhile “Greatest Military in Human History”.

In any case, given the severely depleted stockpiles of American long-range cruise missiles, we have arrived at a very important juncture in this war.

In order to defeat Iran without compromising its already tenuous ability to face Russia and/or China, the US will have to start using glide bombs instead of its precious stand-off missiles.

The problem with that, of course, is that dropping JDAM glide bombs requires the launching aircraft to get within ~40 nmi.

That is well within the “Danger Zone” of Iranian air defenses.

Of course, most people believe Iranian air defenses have been completely eradicated; that US and Israeli aircraft are now flying over Iran unopposed.

Total air supremacy.

I am not nearly so sanguine when it comes to this question.

Sure, when this war started back up in earnest almost a week ago, Iran didn’t have sufficient breadth and depth of integrated air defenses to defend comprehensively against Tomahawk, JASSM, or the relative handful of Sparrow ALBMs Israel has.

So they decided to defend a few very important sites as best they could, but otherwise accept the reality that other targets were going to get hit — at least until the inherent limitations of the strained US stockpiles began to assert their inexorable logic.

What I believe the Iranians have done is to judiciously husband their air defense systems in anticipation of the day when the US and Israel would be compelled to venture into range in order to drop glide bombs.

That day is either already here, or is very soon approaching.

Missiles and bombs are a challenge to shoot down, but aircraft are not. They are all exceedingly vulnerable, including the B-2, F-22, and F-35.

If the US flies “stealth” aircraft into Iran to drop short-range munitions, I fully expect some will get shot down, including the devoutly venerated B-2.

And if the US flies “non-stealth” aircraft into Iran to drop short-range munitions, I fully expect several to get shot down.

Then we’ll have a serious crisis on our hands.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

(Originally published as an 𝕏 article on February 24, 2026: Big League War)

“What the West has, and has had for some time now, is a single-shot military. One serious campaign, whether finally won or lost, would disarm the West for a decade.”

— “Aurelien”

This, folks, is the simple truth of the matter.

The US simply could not, at this moment — nor at any time in even the medium-term future — mount and sustain a campaign the size, intensity, and duration of what we have seen in Ukraine for the past four years.

US logistical chains would have long-since broken down; losses in men and equipment — including LOTS of heavy lift cargo aircraft and the refueling tankers upon which they depend to fly across the planet — would have been calamitous.

Oh, sure, in the context of the current crisis in the Middle East, there’s a huge chorus of people who are gung-ho convinced that US air and naval power would overcome all obstacles in a matter of days, bringing the presumptuous third-world Iranians to their knees.

That’s not what would happen.

What would happen is that, despite a few spectacular successes to stuff the first 24-hour news cycle, the “full-spectrum dominance” everyone believes the US wields would, over the course of just a few days, suffer shocking losses across the entire military spectrum.

Several US aircraft of all types would be shot down.

A few US warships would very likely be damaged — or possibly even sunk.

US bases in the Persian Gulf region would be pounded relentlessly by Iranian drones and ballistic missiles.

US air defenses would exhaust their meager stockpiles of interceptors within just a few days.

US airborne ISR assets would be aggressively targeted, and some could quite conceivably be shot down.

SEAD assets like the E/A-18G Growler and the F-16CJ Wild Weasels would prove more vulnerable to Iranian air defenses than is widely believed.

The legendary (but old and slow) Tomahawk cruise missiles would be jammed and / or shot down in surprising numbers — or even just malfunction on their own, as did 25% of a recent salvo of a dozen that was fired into Nigeria.

As even Israeli intelligence is reported to believe, the US force arrayed against Iran could only sustain high-intensity strikes for about FIVE days. After that, the US would start to experience severe shortages of all types of precision-guided munitions, greatly exacerbated by the degree to which Iranian strikes could attrit weapons stockpiles, destroy refueling tankers, and render runways unusable by boutique US aircraft that need everything to be perfectly pristine.

Iranian naval capability would very likely surprise many people around the world. Their small, fast missile boat swarms present a formidable asymmetric threat, and they have several small submarines that may prove sufficiently stealthy to sneak up on US warships, including the big lumbering US Ohio-class missile submarines.

Iran is by no means a major military power like Russia and China. But they are unquestionably an extremely formidable asymmetric military power, and they have been planning and preparing to fight an asymmetric war against the Americans for the past quarter century.

And if, as now appears almost certain, the Russians and Chinese provide Iran top-shelf intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data, Iranian capabilities would be significantly augmented.

US naval officers confessed that the recent Battle of the Red Sea against the Houthi warriors of Yemen was the most intense combat the US Navy had experienced since WW2.

Iran possesses firepower an entire order of magnitude greater than the Houthi.

A two-week long high-intensity war against Iran would be a stunning exhibition of 21st century warfare.

It would be Big League War, rather than what the US has been fighting for the past several decades.

Both sides would be hurt badly, but the Iranians would not be severely depleted, let alone defeated, whereas the US would be hurt in a fashion it has not experienced in the memory of many people still alive — only to then look around and discover itself in a state of acute logistical crisis after only a fortnight of high-intensity combat operations.

That will be the moment of decision; the last chance for the saner heads within the halls of empire — those who have hitherto acquiesced as this catastrophe unfolded — to choose to finally act to stop the madness, or stand idly by as they and all the rest of us are acted upon by events that spiral out of control.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

Former UK ambassador and intelligence officer Alastair Crooke, on Geopolitika, writes as follows:

Over the past two weeks, two important messages were conveyed to Iran, both of which were rejected.

One came from the U.S. and the other from Israel. The former was: “We [the U.S.] will carry out a limited attack and you should accept it; or at least, give only a symbolic response.” Tehran rejected this request, saying that it would consider any attack to mark the beginning of a full-scale war.

Israel’s message, delivered through one of the various mediators, was: “We will not participate in the American attack.” It asked Iran therefore, to not target Israel. This request also met with a negative response, together with the explicit clarification that were the U.S. to commence military action, Israel would be immediately attacked. In parallel, Iran informed all states in the region that any attack launched from their territory or airspace, would result in an Iranian attack on whomsoever facilitated such U.S. military action.

These reports are actually quite astounding, for not only do they parallel perfectly what happened in the final 48 hours of the 12-Day War, but they reveal a profound degree of self-doubt and hesitation percolating in Washington and Tel Aviv.

The Pentagon and the Israel Defense Forces are coming face to face with something I have been shouting from the house tops for several years now:

There are no easy wars left to fight.

And, contrary to the perceptions of most Americans and others around the world, making war against Iran in its own backyard here in 2026 is all but certain to produce disastrous results for both the US and Israel — and has pronounced potential to spark a regional war, spiral out of control, and ultimately draw in Russia, China, and North Korea.

In any case, it must be understood that, in firmly rejecting US/Israel demands, Iran is effectively dictating terms — and this strongly confirms what many of us have argued since last summer: Iran was the clear winner of the 12-Day War. Israel knows it, the US knows it, and Iran knows it.

If the reports above are more or less accurate, then it is undeniably evident that Washington is angling for an exit from this march to madness.

But, given that the Iranians are now dictating the terms of that exit and will not agree to a reprise of the orchestrated Operation Midnight Hammer, and its fictitious B-2 bunker-busting strike, and given the massive concentration of American military power in the region, and given the huge investment in menacing bravado Trump has already made in this ill-conceived adventure, war may now be unavoidable.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

I have, on multiple occasions, derided the Center for Strategic and International Studies #EmpirePropaganda mill. But, lo and behold, I have come upon something commendable published by them: an early December 2025 analysis of the acutely depleted United States air defense missile inventories, authored by Wes Rumbaugh.

In his report, Rumbaugh touches upon all four of the US missile defense interceptors: PAC-3, THAAD, SM-3, and SM-6. But for the purposes of this article, we shall confine ourselves to the topic of the THAAD anti-ballistic missile interceptors.

First, a reminder of the history of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense interceptor. Few people recall now how many years THAAD languished in its development and testing phase. It was so woefully ineffective that the program was nearly canceled on multiple occasions, was saved as a result of various political considerations, and only went to operational status after the Pentagon repeatedly dumbed down the testing scenarios until it could finally intercept a target missile.

In short, it was widely considered a debacle. Nevertheless, the Pentagon has now managed to procure eight THAAD batteries — or rather seven and a half. The eighth is a “Minimum Engagement Package” which only includes three launchers.

A single THAAD battery consists of six launchers, with eight interceptors per launcher, for a total of 48 interceptors per battery.

As of the start of the June 2025 “12-Day War” the total number of THAAD interceptors in the US inventory numbered 534, according to Rumbaugh’s research.

However, it appears Rumbaugh failed to account for as many as 120 that have been delivered to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to load the partial THAAD batteries they have purchased. I’ll round it off to 100 to be conservative.

Therefore a more accurate total US inventory of THAAD interceptors prior to the 12-Day War was ~434.

Two THAAD batteries were deployed to Israel for the 12-Day War. Over the course of those twelve days, at least 150 THAAD interceptors were expended.

Here then is the bottom line: when the 12-Day War was over, the total inventory of THAAD interceptors had been reduced from 434 to 284 – which means there are now not enough THAAD interceptors on the planet to load the 7.5 extant batteries.

As we now face down the possibility of the resumption of the war with Iran, two THAAD batteries have again been deployed to the Middle East. Assuming both batteries have been supplied with at least two full loads (192 interceptors), that means there are only ~92 total interceptors remaining for the other batteries positioned around the globe — or enough for just a 35% load of each launcher.

Meanwhile, annual THAAD interceptor production is nearly infinitesimal, with no deliveries scheduled until mid-2027, and then only at a production rate of fewer than 10 per month:

I struggle to arrive at a logical conclusion for this gross mismanagement. It almost seems to be deliberate malfeasance, for reasons I cannot fathom.

But the simple fact is that the scant remainder of the THAAD interceptor inventory will be consumed over the course of another short war against Iran. And there is no meaningful replenishment on the horizon.

(Thanks to Jack Lamper for providing some valuable additional information that contributed to the accuracy of the statistics cited above.)

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

For several years now I have been making the argument that, because American military power is so widely dispersed and diluted across the planet, the only way the United States could concentrate sufficient forces to prosecute a war against one of its three major power adversaries (Russia, China, and Iran) would be to significantly deplete its force posture relative to the other two.

That is precisely what has been happening over the course of the past few weeks in relation to the military buildup in the Persian Gulf region, in apparent preparation to launch an air campaign against Iran.

Now, granted, as I wrote yesterday, the force the US is concentrating in the Middle East via an aggressive heavy airlift operation is not sufficiently potent to sustain more than about two weeks of high-intensity war against Iran. US stockpiles of precision-guided weaponry are simply too limited to allow for a more protracted campaign.

Nor do I believe the US has the logistical and maintenance capacity to keep a large percentage of its fleet of aging aircraft air-worthy for more than about two weeks — especially when there will very likely be Iranian missiles raining down on all the US bases in the region.

And therefore, if Iran proves capable of turning it into even a month-long regional war of attrition, there is no way I can see the US being able to sustain its sortie rate, nor to tolerate the losses of men and equipment it would inevitably incur.

The US would be forced to withdraw.

It would be a catastrophic debacle for Washington, and would radically alter the global balance of powers.

Of course, a great many Americans and others around the world are convinced that the US military is so incomparably awesome that it will be able to overwhelm and subdue the Iranians within no more than 48 hours or so – and therefore the risk of “running out” of strike missiles and air defense interceptors is illusory and irrelevant.

For most people around the globe, the notion that the US could actually LOSE a war to Iran is utterly incomprehensible.

Maybe these people are right. Maybe I and others have completely overestimated Iranian capabilities. Maybe Iran will collapse like a house of cards in the face of one “shock and awe” strike by the US and Israel. Maybe they will be so intimidated by this major concentration of American force that they will, at the eleventh hour, simply accede to American demands to abandon their nuclear program, dismantle their missile force, and permit the US to install a puppet government in Tehran.

But I strongly doubt it.

In any case, the US has delivered a formidable strike force to the region. In addition, a huge proportion of US air defense capability has now been committed to this campaign in anticipation of a formidable Iranian counterstrike to an American/Israeli attack on them.

I have, for the past few years, repeatedly expressed my doubts that the US would ultimately opt to launch a war against Iran. I have been largely persuaded that clear heads in the Pentagon would recognize the very significant risks of such an undertaking, and that their well-established aversion to human and material losses would eventually dissuade them from stumbling into such a potential strategic disaster.

But, by all indications, the powers-that-be in Washington are now fully committed to enforcing their demands on Tehran. And the Iranians appear committed to standing their ground. Neither side can retreat at this juncture. So it’s gonna be a showdown.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

Rumor has it The Peace President has decided to launch a war for the holidays.

Raise the flag, sing the anthem, pull the trigger.

I mean, they’ve been building this Caribbean air and naval fleet for months now. They went to all the trouble of bringing in the USS Stumbling Gerry (CVN-78) — flagship of the US Navy, and reputedly the most powerful warship in the world.

The crew is coming off a nice six-day shore leave in St. Thomas in the paradisiacal American Virgin Islands, and after assisting in the courageous seizure of a defenseless oil tanker, those guys are ready to rumble.

And I’m ready for the show.

In the immortal words of David Lowery:

What the world needs now is a new kind of tension

Because the old one just bores me to death

Beer, wine, bourbon, football, tawdry debauchery, and 4k video of huge explosions.

Oh, and blood.

The blood is compulsory.

It’s the American way. Ask anyone. With few, if any, exceptions, they will wax poetic about how the United States of America has been divinely appointed to subdue the earth to accept freedom, democracy, and the dominion of The Almighty Dollar.

Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.

Luke 2

Anyway, as far as war with Venezuela is concerned, I tried hard to believe they would eventually just launch a few Tomahawks, claim victory, and go home. But now it looks like Trump is determined to “GO BIG”.

Of course he is.

What exactly that will mean in the present scenario is hard to predict. I figure this is the basic script:

Launch a couple hundred Tomahawks, follow that up with a big Wild Weasel strike to weed out any remaining air defenses, blow up some oil and port facilities, and try to snipe Maduro.

Then take a break for Christmas, raise toasts to the glorious warriors, and demand complete Venezuelan submission to US terms, or else “worse things will happen”.

And, in every corner of the land, from sea to shining sea, voices will ring out:

“God Bless America, my home sweet home.”

Or something like that.

Of course, as I often note, there are #NoEasyWarsLeftToFight. And therefore, even in the case of a huge disparity of forces such as now presents itself, there remain many unforeseen possibilities, and many very credible risks.

Happy Holidays 2025.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

A retrospective analysis of the so-called 12-Day War, and the triumphantly celebrated Operation Midnight Hammer.

The GBU-57 is a big fat gravity bomb with fins. To achieve effective precision, a B-2 bomber must drop it on its intended target from no further than about five nautical miles — essentially right on top of the target.

Its penetration depth is claimed to be 200 feet. But that capability has NEVER been tested against a seriously hardened deep-underground target encased in layers of high-performance concrete, and topped with a few dozen meters of solid rock. In that sort of real-world scenario, the GBU-57 would be lucky to drill down 50 feet, if that.

It was always ridiculous silly talk to suggest the GBU-57 was the wonder weapon it was made out to be. There is a good reason the US only produced a couple dozen of them and then stopped: they understood its acute limitations in a non-permissive combat environment.

And, notwithstanding the hyperbolic Israeli propaganda, there was never any credible evidence that Iranian medium- and long-range air defenses against fixed-wing aircraft were attrited to any significant degree. And Iranian short-range air defenses were increasingly effective against long-range Israeli drones with each passing day.

As for the B-2: it is a big fat subsonic aircraft. It flies at airliner speeds. A strike on Fordow would entail flying at least 500 miles in and out of Iran.

It is nonsense that the B-2 is effectively invisible. It can be tracked from long distances, and targeted sufficiently well that missiles with effective terminal guidance (thermal / optical) can kill it.

The Iranians established during the October 26, 2024 Israeli counterstrike that they could paint F-35s with their radars. That is why the Israelis launched nothing but long-range stand-off munitions: aero-ballistic and cruise missiles – of which they have a very limited stockpile.

The same conditions prevailed during the 12-Day War.

And just as the Israelis were unwilling to risk getting fighters shot down over Iran, neither was the USAF willing to risk getting a B-2 shot down over Iran.

Maybe a few B-2s launched some JASSMs from over Iraq or the Caspian Sea. Maybe nothing but sub-launched Tomahawks hit Iranian targets. But it certainly wasn’t GBU-57 “Bunker Buster” bombs dropped by a half-dozen B-2s casually flying in Iranian airspace for an hour.

And whatever was dropped inflicted no meaningful damage. Fordow was scratched at best. A bunch of surface structures at Natanz were blown up.

Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear program was destroyed is absurd nonsense. No one with even a modest understanding of these things believes that.

The Israelis certainly don’t believe it, and they have admitted as much.

It is true that, in retaliation, the Iranians precisely targeted and convincingly destroyed a significant communications complex at the American Al Udeid airbase in Qatar.

The fictionalized B-2 “Bunker Buster” strike on Fordow, and the token Iranian ballistic missile strike on Al Udeid were orchestrated events designed to grease the tracks of a ceasefire that was proposed by the Americans and agreed to by the Iranians.

The Americans and Israelis had expended almost their entire inventories of ballistic missile interceptors over the course of a week and a half, and Iranian missiles were raining down with effective impunity the last few days.

The Iranians knew damn well they had already achieved a strategic victory, despite their shaky start.

I’m also convinced the Russians and Chinese encouraged Iran to accept the ceasefire proposal.

It allowed both sides to claim a PR victory, lick their wounds, and prepare for the next round.

Meanwhile, the Iranians have more production capability than do their US/Israeli counterparts. And it also appears the Iranians are much more amenable to Russian and Chinese assistance now than they may have been previously.

When this war resumes, the Iranians will be comparatively stronger than they were before. And the risks for the US/Israel will be significantly heightened.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

One of the most common claims about the Trump 45 administration is that “He didn’t start any new wars.”

This is demonstrably FALSE.

During his first term, Trump became the ultimate causal agent for every one of the current conflicts with Russia, China, Iran, and Venezuela.

He not only maintained the trajectory of these conflicts as established by previous US administrations, but he dramatically raised the stakes and quickened the pace of the march to war.

Ukraine

In Ukraine, between 2017 and 2021, the already commenced preparations of #TheMotherOfAllProxyArmies were expanded and accelerated to an unprecedented degree.

Almost two-dozen covert US intelligence bases were established throughout eastern Ukraine. Large numbers of Ukrainian armed forces personnel were rotated through US/NATO training programs. Ukrainian officers were instructed in the use of US/NATO communications and intelligence / surveillance / reconnaissance (ISR) data. A chain of command was established from Kiev to US/NATO headquarters at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. US heavy weaponry was pre-staged in Poland, and preliminary deals were made with former Warsaw Pact countries (many of them now NATO members) to provide legacy Soviet artillery, armor, ammunition, and fighter aircraft to Ukraine.

Ukrainian troops were introduced to the use of Javelin Anti-Tank Guided Missiles, M-777 155mm howitzers, and HIMARS Multiple-Launch Rocket Systems.

Some of the legacy Soviet aircraft types in the Ukrainian Air Force were modified to carry and launch US/NATO missiles.

The massive fortification complex in the Donbass region was extended and strengthened.

A few thousand US/NATO “contractors” were integrated into the Ukrainian military – with preference given to the hard-core neo-Nazi brigades, who were considered to be the “elite” units in the AFU.

The strategic focus during the entire Trump 45 administration was to complete the preparation of the Ukrainian military to attack and crush the Russia-leaning separatists in the Donbass, and to then retake Crimea, which the Russians had seized in the aftermath of the 2014 American-led coup d’état in Kiev – and which was formally reassimilated into the Russian Federation as a result of an overwhelming popular referendum vote.

Trump has even bragged about the fact that he was the one who began to arm the Ukrainians to a far greater extent than Obama had ever done.

“I was the one that gave the Javelins. Remember the famous Javelins? That was me. It wasn’t Obama. It wasn’t Biden. It wasn’t anybody else. It was me. And they wiped out a lot of tanks with those Javelins. The expression was, ‘Obama gave sheets’. And I gave Javelins. That was a big deal at the time. That was at the beginning, when people said, ‘Wow, that’s something!’ Well, that was American equipment. Without American equipment, this war would have been over very quickly.”

President Donald J. Trump, Oval Office News Conference, February 26, 2025

Here is the full video clip from which the quote above is taken:

This is the irrefutable fact: the Trump 45 administration both hastened and made inevitable the war whose final fuse was lit in early February 2022 when the Ukrainians commenced a broad-front artillery escalation against what they claimed to be Donbass militia positions, but which were indistinguishable from random civilian targets.

All of these factors combined compelled the Russians to move decisively (and sooner than they wanted) to extend their strategic depth in the region.

All those who claim Trump has no culpability for the war in Ukraine are either ignorant of the abundant objective facts, or in denial thereof.

Several prominent geopolitical voices were raising the alarm about war in Ukraine even before Victoria Nuland, John McCain, Lindsey Graham et al. goose-stepped through the streets of conquered Kiev in 2014.

And all during the civil war that then ensued, until the Russians intervened in late February 2022, US/NATO intelligence and special forces operatives were active in Ukraine, in support of the Kiev government’s military movements in the Donbass.

The crisis became increasingly acute over the course of the first Trump administration, even as the twin objectives of subduing the Donbass and retaking Crimea became increasingly apparent.

As I posted on Twitter in April of 2021:

Ukraine has two options: accept its role as a buffer state, or be dismembered. If the US goads them into an attempt to subjugate the Donbass, Russia will slice away eastern Ukraine and assimilate it -- and there is *nothing* the US can do to prevent it.

Fact is, the big geostrategic nation-state wars are always decades in the making. So it was in the case of the war in Ukraine.

But the unavoidable trajectory of war was set in stone during Donald Trump’s FIRST rodeo in the White House. Trump owns the Ukraine War more than Joe Biden’s Autopen. At least Trump laid claim to a modest degree of cogency in his first term.

The apparition of Joe Biden, dazed and confused, simply watched dumbfounded as long-fated events flashed before his empty eyes.

China

One of Trump’s first actions after he was inaugurated in 2017 was to announce a sale to Taiwan of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, SM-2 and SM-3 naval air defense missiles, MK-48 torpedoes, and advanced radar systems.

In 2019, to much fanfare, Trump announced the sale to Taiwan of 66 F-16V fighters.

In 2020, Trump announced the sale of even more Harpoon ASMs, HIMARS systems, and MQ-9B drones.

Trump also, over the course of his first term, sent a total of about 300 US Army and Marine special forces operators to Taiwan. Since Trump’s second term began, that number has been increased to over 500 – including substantial contingents on Penghu and Kinmen Island, which is just six miles from the Chinese coast.

This permanent basing of a full battalion of US troops in Taiwan was unprecedented prior to Trump’s first term. And, understandably, it is regarded by China as an unprecedented provocation. Consequently, Chinese preparations for a possible war in and around its home seas have greatly accelerated.

And, in what is arguably his most strategically ill-advised move of all, Trump 45 started the trade and rhetoric war with China that continues to the present day.

There are now even widespread rumors that the US Department of War is preparing a naval blockade of energy imports into China — an act of utter madness.

Iran

Trump, in concert with the Israelis, started the major war with Iran that continues to this day — albeit currently in one of its typical intermissions.

In what I consider to have been the most brazen act of war in his first administration, Trump ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, on January 3, 2020, at the Baghdad airport.

Soleimani was on a diplomatic mission to Baghdad at the invitation of Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, who had been acting as the intermediary between the Saudis and the Iranians, who were working to de-escalate drone and missile attacks by Iraqi militias against American bases in Iraq, and the Green Zone in Baghdad.

Soleimani was traveling to deliver Iran’s official response to a Saudi Arabian mediation proposal.

On December 31, 2019, ostensibly in support of these Saudi-Iranian moves to defuse the situation in Iraq, President Trump made a personal call to Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi. The Iraqi leader then called Soleimani to arrange a meeting in the Green Zone in Baghdad, scheduled for the morning of January 3, 2020.

Soleimani and his small entourage traveled openly on a commercial flight, and were met at the airport by Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and a few other Iraqis. As Soleimani, al-Muhandis, and eight others were traveling from the airport to the Green Zone in two vehicles, an American MQ-9 Reaper drone fired Hellfire missiles and blew them all to smithereens.

President Trump directly ordered the attack, and afterwards publicly gloried in his perfidy.

Soleimani was considered a national hero in Iran, and was arguably the second-most powerful and influential political figure in Iran at the time, behind only the Ayatollah Khamenei.

The Iranians were justifiably outraged.

On January 8, 2020, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against the American Ayn al-Asad airbase in Iraq. About 15 Iranian ballistic missiles targeted the base with shockingly impressive accuracy, although it was clear the strike was mostly demonstrative in nature, and the Iranians deliberately avoided killing US troops.

Even so, the potency of the strike clearly astounded both the Americans and the Israelis, and resulted in a diminution of both US and Israeli strikes against Iranian targets until April 1, 2024, when the Israelis killed seven Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers in a missile strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Two weeks later (April 13-14, 2024), the Iranians launched a massive and unprecedented missile strike against Israel. This then led directly to the series of exchanges between Israel and Iran which took place over the course of the ensuing months, culminating in the so-called 12-Day War between the US/Israel and Iran from June 13-24, 2025.

Of course, it must be understood that this war between the US/Israel and Iran is NOT over yet. It is just on a brief hiatus, and there are indications in recent days that Israel is planning new strikes against Iran.

But make no mistake, the catalyzing event for this greatly escalated war with Iran was Trump’s treacherous murder of Qasem Soleimani on January 3, 2020.

Venezuela

Trump began publicly expressing his desire to go to war against Venezuela, and to seize its oil, no later than July 2017. It became a recurring theme for him, ultimately resulting in the failed 2019 coup d’état against Nicolas Maduró, when the US attempted to install clown puppet Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s leader.

Trump is quoted as saying:

“I don’t understand why we’re not looking at Venezuela. Why are we not at war with Venezuela?”

“That’s the country we should be going to war with. They have all that oil and they’re right on our back door.”

Trump’s bellicose language towards Venezuela continued all through his first term, and as a result, Venezuela’s longstanding friends Russia, China, and Iran began to more aggressively strengthen Venezuela’s military capabilities in anticipation of an eventual US attack and potential invasion of the South American country that holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world.

Now, as I write here on Thanksgiving Day 2025, the United States has positioned a massive naval fleet and Marine landing force off the coast of Venezuela, and it appears almost certain that military operations against the Maduro regime will commence imminently, with the overt aim of installing a new puppet government whose putative leader, CIA-groomed Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, has explicitly called for an American invasion of the Bolivarian Republic, and pledged to permit the US to take control of Venezuela’s oil, gold, and other mineral wealth.

SOUTHCOM has even provided a slick promotional video for the upcoming war against Venezuela:

The Imaginary Peace President

Trump, consumed by his own lust to become a celebrated recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, has been claiming for months now to have ended no fewer than eight imaginary wars.

In reality, President Donald J. Trump has exhibited one of the most itchy trigger fingers of any US president in my lifetime (Eisenhower was still president when I was born).

Incredibly, he has chosen to pick fights with the most powerful adversaries the US has faced since the Second World War: Russia, China, and Iran. And, worst of all, he has catalyzed the formation of an unbeatable military and economic alliance between those three ascendant civilizational powers, even as American military power has eroded to its post-WW2 nadir.

Of course, most Americans possess a knowledge and understanding of war and US military might as it has been portrayed for decades in Hollywood movies and video games. And therefore, when Trump waxes grandiloquent about the United States being the greatest military force in human history, American vanity is easily persuaded that there is no nation on earth the US cannot trample underfoot with one hand tied behind its back.

Neither Donald Trump nor many Americans realize there are no easy wars left to fight. But that sobering truth will be laid bare for all to see between now and the end of the final term of The Imaginary Peace President.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

Future naval operations will require persistent activity inside the enemy’s reach.

“We must not be deterred.”

“We must not be deterred!”

WE MUST NOT BE DETERRED! (echoes fade into the distance)

This is a brief commentary on an exceedingly fascinating report of a speech delivered today by the commander of the United States Pacific Fleet, Admiral Stephen Koehler. It’s a two-minute read, at most. I recommend it.

If nothing else, you will thereby be exposed to an eloquent exhibition of Admiral Mumbo Jumbo, a dialect of Pentagonorrhea corrupted by war industry sales brochure catch phrases.

In any case – and somewhat to my surprise – Koehler appears to vaguely discern the root problem: his opponents in a putative war in the western Pacific (China, Russia, North Korea) possess a long and potentially heavy-fisted reach.

Nevertheless, the intrepid Admiral is certain this problem can be overcome by the indomitable US Navy, and all the newfangled gadgetry that will soon restore US global power projection to its glory days.

Here are a few excerpts from the report:

“Just as speed is a defining characteristic in our modern battlespace, we also need persistence. And what I’m talking about here is persistent power projection and persistent domination of the battlespace leading to a denial of the adversary’s objective,” Adm. Stephen Koehler, commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet, said during a presentation at AFCEA’s TechNet Indo-Pacific conference in Hawaii Tuesday.

“It means forces are able to execute prolonged operations against evolving threats and our forces are able to operate inside the enemy’s weapon engagement zone, or WEZ … We must not be deterred from operating at the time and place of our choosing. To do so would succumb to an adversary area denial strategy and cede battlespace, and I refuse to do that.”

Koehler noted that part of his remit within USPACFLT is to bring the fight forward to the enemy on their turf.

If “the fighter that you’re fighting has a longer reach than you have, then if you don’t maneuver, if you don’t work different ways to get in there, he’s going to pummel you. But that doesn’t mean you don’t fight him and that’s not what militaries do,” he said. “We work inside the weapons engagement zone, that’s how you affect the fight, and that’s our job.”

Well, Admiral, I hate to be the one to break the news to you, but “working inside the weapons engagement zone” against China and Russia means getting capital ships destroyed, lots of aircraft shot down, lots of sailors and airmen killed, and major regional bases mercilessly pummeled by what will soon come to be seen as an inexhaustible stockpile of armaments.

I am notorious for my frequent repetition of the hashtag #NoEasyWarsLeftToFight. But I must invoke it again in this context, because attempting to fight a war for dominion over the western Pacific is the acme of madness for the increasingly enfeebled 21^st century Anglo-American empire.

Of course, I recognize that many will vehemently protest my suggestion that any US war in the western Pacific must assume the participation of all three major US adversaries in the region: China, Russia, and North Korea. Nevertheless, it is true. In fact, the team will also include Iran — an arrangement about which I have written previously: All for One and One for All.

Whether Japan, Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand obediently join the Americans in a war on such terms remains uncertain in my estimation. But I am convinced the Chinese, Russians, Iranians, and North Koreans will collaborate in a coordinated fashion to push the Americans back to the Third Island Chain.

And thus the power dynamics of the entire planet will be profoundly altered for decades to come.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

As I have long dreaded, it appears the weight of the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult is bearing sway.

They have both hands on one side of the tiller.

On the other side is Team Peace Prize, patting each other on the back with one hand, and eating a cheeseburger with the other.

Not that there is even a choice at this juncture on the question of: War or Not War?

When you are an enfeebled former superpower teetering on the brink of international and domestic collapse, war inevitably becomes the only mirage your hubris can envision.

Here are some of the salient considerations:

The fate of the global dollar system and its great towers of imaginary collateral hang in the balance. And those towers will not fall neatly into their own footprint. The collateral damage will be unprecedented.

The Sino-Russian Dragonbear alliance has solidified the foundations of the rapidly emerging multipolar reorganization of world power.

While the perpetual fence-straddlers in India and Turkey (and other lesser Asian powers) dance the vacillation jig they know so well, the formidable rising powers in North Korea and Iran have cast their lot where they must in order to survive.

This then is the order of battle.

The only question is WHO, WHERE, and WHEN.

Many in the US power structure concur with the British and the withering empty shell of western Europe: the Russians are the enemy that must be destroyed first, and then chopped into pieces for the “civilized world” to consume at its leisure.

Others remain convinced the Chinese are, far and away, the greatest threat to American hegemony and the “rules-based international order”. Sina delenda est!

Yet others, the advocates of “Greater Israel” among them, are determined to make Iran the chosen war, the prize of which would be dominant control over Persian Gulf energy production and exports.

There is a cold, hard logic to the latter option, because if Iran can be neutralized as the third-leg in the Eurasian trade and currency bloc, Chinese access to Persian Gulf energy can be severed, along with Russian access to the Indian Ocean via the International North-South Transport Corridor.

Yes, Trump is talking tough about deposing Nicolás Maduro, and installing a puppet government in Venezuela that will do Washington’s bidding in relation to their massive untapped oil reserves. The US Navy has sent to the region a modest fleet consisting of an Amphibious Ready Group and a few destroyers in order to menace the Bolivarian Republic into submission. But, although it is almost certain the US Department of War will attempt some sort of decapitation strike in the form of stand-off missiles, I assess zero possibility that they will attempt to land a couple brigades of lightly armed Marines to march on Caracas.

Most people don’t realize Venezuela is 50% larger than Ukraine (which, ex-Russia, is the largest country in Europe), and poses extremely difficult geographic and logistical challenges for an invading army. It would turn into a quagmire as intractable as Vietnam.

And besides, invading and conquering Venezuela doesn’t win anything of real importance for the United States. It would certainly do nothing to arrest the rapid decline of American global hegemony. And it would effectively cede Eurasia to the Russia, China, Iran bloc.

As for Russia and China, it’s sheer madness for the United States to take on either one in a war. It’s ridiculous to even consider. The American military would be, over the course of just a few weeks, subjected to the most shocking defeat in its history – as I have written about on many occasions over the past few years.

So that leaves Iran as the only objective under serious consideration.

The hopelessly propagandized American public and almost all of its imbecilic political leaders believe the supposedly mighty US/Israeli air forces humiliated Iran with an overwhelming series of unstoppable air strikes. They believe Iran has been rendered effectively defenseless, and that neither Moscow nor Beijing nor Pyongyang would dare to undertake any moves to aid Tehran against the combined power of the US and Israel.

I’m sure they’re mistaken, but no one is going to appreciate the scope and depth of the deception until it’s too late to turn back.

So that’s where we stand here in the first week of October 2025 – on the brink of a war that will, once and for all, expose how utterly mythological American military supremacy truly is.

The power is pretended

The summer is past

The harvest is ended

And the die is cast

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

The Game of Presidential Thrones in the United States has been, for many generations, a factional contest among elites who, by strict custom, affiliate with one or the other of two distinct bands — the au courant appellations are superfluous.

Democrat, Republican, Liberal, Conservative, Left, Right, Blue, Red … whatever.

I've always thought “x” or “not x” should suffice.

But I digress ...

What I set out to say is that all American presidents for several generations have effectively been marionettes – figureheads at best.

As the often insightful Vladimir Putin has described the situation (paraphrased):

It doesn't matter which faction claims the Oval Office. Either way, in the first days of a new president's term, very serious people in dark suits carrying black briefcases descend upon the White House, sit the new "Commander in Chief" down in his chair, and concisely explain to him how things REALLY work.

If he has not done so previously, the new president is then firmly enjoined to swear a new oath — by his head — pledging unwavering fealty to The Band.

And whoso should divulge whatsoever thing is made known unto them, the same should lose his life.

Since its transition from aspiring constitutional republic to oath-bound band of robbers, the American Empire has been ruled by secret combinations, as was the British Empire before it, and countless others stretching back countless generations to antiquity – not always at first, and not always uninterrupted by brief eras of penitent righteousness (usually catalyzed by catastrophe), but always in the later generations of the imperial cycle.

That said, I have strong reason to believe there is something unique about “America” and its role as the great latter-day empire. My view of the matter is largely shaped by a book published in 1830 by an uneducated quasi-indigent 24-year-old American named Joseph Smith.

Most people around the world who are familiar with the book (entitled The Book of Mormon) regard it as a work of fantasy, somewhat similar in form to Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings novels. The Book of Mormon purports to be a chronicle of two separate ancient “American” civilizations that were ultimately destroyed as a result of rampant wickedness and societal decay. And although many who have read The Book of Mormon regard it as inspired ancient scripture, I am content, for the purposes of this essay, that my readers regard it as no more than a work of fiction. After all, fans of Tolkien’s works often cite passages from The Lord of the Rings as inspired utterances, and I have no argument with their perspectives in that regard. I will therefore do the same, and encourage the reader to form his or her own judgments as they may.

The Book of Mormon refers to what we now call the “American” continent (North, Central, and South) as a “promised land”, upon which the curse of the Almighty God has been pronounced if and when the people permit “secret combinations” to establish themselves as the dominant ruling power.

In reference to these “secret combinations”, the primary compiler of the chronicle (a military leader / prophet named “Mormon”) wrote as follows:

And now behold, those murderers and plunderers were a band who had been formed by Kishkumen and Gadianton.

[And many] did unite with those bands of robbers, and did enter into their covenants and their oaths, that they would protect and preserve one another in whatsoever difficult circumstances they should be placed, that they should not suffer for their murders, and their plunderings, and their stealings.

And it came to pass that they did have their signs, yea, their secret signs, and their secret words; and this that they might distinguish a brother who had entered into the covenant, that whatsoever wickedness his brother should do he should not be injured by his brother, nor by those who did belong to his band, who had taken this covenant.

And thus they might murder, and plunder, and steal, and commit whoredoms and all manner of wickedness, contrary to the laws of their country and also the laws of their God.

And whosoever of those who belonged to their band should reveal unto the world of their wickedness and their abominations, should be tried, not according to the laws of their country, but according to the laws of their wickedness, which had been given by Gadianton and Kishkumen.

Helaman 6

Near the end of the book, “Moroni”, the son of Mormon, takes up the topic again after the death of his father (and the destruction of his people):

And whatsoever nation shall uphold such secret combinations, to get power and gain, until they shall spread over the nation, behold, they shall be destroyed; for the Lord will not suffer that the blood of his saints, which shall be shed by them, shall always cry unto him from the ground for vengeance upon them and yet he avenge them not.

Wherefore … it is wisdom in God that these things should be shown unto you, that thereby ye may repent of your sins, and suffer not that these murderous combinations shall get above you, which are built up to get power and gain—and the work of destruction come upon you, yea, even the sword of the justice of the Eternal God shall fall upon you, to your overthrow and destruction if ye shall suffer these things to be.

Wherefore, the Lord commandeth you, when ye shall see these things come among you that ye shall awake to a sense of your awful situation, because of this secret combination which shall be among you …

For it cometh to pass that whoso buildeth it up seeketh to overthrow the freedom of all lands, nations, and countries; and it bringeth to pass the destruction of all people …

Ether 8

For behold, this is a land which is choice above all other lands; wherefore he that doth possess it shall serve God or shall be swept off; for it is the everlasting decree of God. And it is not until the fulness of iniquity among the children of the land, that they are swept off.

And this cometh unto you … that ye may know the decrees of God—that ye may repent, and not continue in your iniquities until the fulness come, that ye may not bring down the fulness of the wrath of God upon you as the inhabitants of the land have hitherto done.

Ether 2

Thus it is written in this book that claims for itself ancient origins.

Many will mock it, few will believe it, and even fewer will heed its warnings. But it won’t surprise me if all the words of the prophets contained therein are fulfilled at the appointed time.

𝕏: @imetatronink

My coalescing sense of the underwhelming Alaska Chats is that Russia has not materially varied from its longstanding terms.

Trump rolled into town with his "stealth" flyover, imagining he was the one giving an audience to Putin.

From start to finish it was perfectly evident to any discerning observer that it was just the opposite, and that Putin was there to repeat and to emphasize Russia's apparently inviolable terms.

As I understand it, the Russians have said they will implement a conditional temporary ceasefire in the south while NATO/AFU forces withdraw from Donetsk.

No one has said anything about ending the Special Military Operation, nor of the disposition of territories.

In essence, the Russians are saying:

“We’ll temporarily stop destroying you on the southern part of the line of contact while you retreat from the northern part, and then we’ll demand you also withdraw from the southern part, and lay down your arms.”

I cannot understand how so many people seem to doubt the resolve of the Russians to continue fighting western forces for years to come pursuant to their clearly enunciated objectives.

In each successive year of this war, Russian strength has augmented across the spectrum. Russia is not only outproducing the combined west by several multiples, but their military hardware is now indisputably superior in most key categories.

The only exit route for the US/NATO is capitulation, which in this instance entails withdrawing NATO military presence to the 1997 borders, as stipulated in the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997.

How they opt to frame that capitulation is up to them.

As I noted in my February 2024 analysis of the Tucker Carlson interview of Vladimir Putin:

Tucker Carlson: Do you think it is too humiliating at this point for NATO to accept Russian control of what was two years ago Ukrainian territory?

Vladimir Putin: I said let them think how to do it with dignity. There are options if there is a will.

Up until now there has been the uproar and screaming about inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield. Now they are apparently coming to realize that it is difficult to achieve, if possible at all. In my opinion, it is impossible by definition. It is never going to happen.

It seems to me that now those who are in power in the West have come to realize this as well. If so, if the realization has set in, they have to think what to do next. We are ready for this dialogue.

That both Tucker Carlson and others have failed to correctly interpret Putin’s words is incomprehensible to me. So permit me to paraphrase them in language that is perhaps more understandable to the dimwitted and disingenuous people in the west who continue to misrepresent them:

“We offered them an early out, and they rejected it in favor of an appeal to arms in order to inflict what they imagined would be a severe strategic defeat against Russia on the field of battle. But their reach greatly exceeded their grasp. They cannot defeat us. Now let them seek a delicate exit from the mess they’ve gotten themselves into — but we will achieve our objectives.”

No matter how the would-be masters of empire try to spin defeat into victory, most everyone around the world will still know the score. And it is this disabused illusion of imperial military supremacy that will rapidly accelerate its inexorable decline.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

The United States wielded near-total hegemony from at least the early 1990s to 2014 or so, at which point the first big irreversible cracks began to form.

Russia took back Crimea, and took the Donbass under its wing. China began to methodically divest itself of US IOUs.

Those acts of defiance threw down the gauntlet, serving notice not only to the masters of empire, but to lesser powers around the globe who were sick and tired of being pushed around and pillaged by the saphead American cowboys in their ten-gallon hats filled to the brim with hypocrisy.

Now Donald Trump has become the parodic beau ideal of everything the rest of the world has always found most contemptible in the American ruling class.

They say Trump doesn't drink. Yet he has become drunk with imagined power, and his delusions are fortified by the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult with which he has surrounded himself, and who have easily mastered the paint-by-numbers art of feeding Trump's vanity.

No doubt his confidence has been further inflated by how abjectly the Anglosphere and most of Europe are now genuflecting at his feet – or are at least affecting the appearance of genuflection for the time being.

But they're not the ones who matter. They sold their sovereignty long ago.

All of them, in aggregate, are impotent and meaningless in the context of the great power struggle looming on the horizon of the not-so-distant future.

It's the defiant ones who now matter: Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and others among the middle powers of the planet who are increasingly sympathetic with the objective of dramatically rolling back the already receding tide of American hegemony.

Of course, the "true believers" in indomitable imperial power remain convinced that carrier strike groups, invisible bombers, and unstoppable missiles can subdue the rebellion against American supremacy.

Contrarily, the events of the past few years have convinced a great many around the world that the imbecile bully empire is greatly weakened relative to the striking power of the “rebel alliance” arrayed against it.

So … as 2025 leans into its denouement, Trump has boldly picked all the low-hanging fruit – most of it teeming with worms.

Now comes the real showdown.

Earlier today Trump gave Putin a ten-day deadline to stop annihilating the #MotherOfAllProxyArmies in Ukraine. He also reminded the Iranians that the mighty American military is ready, “at the drop of a hat” – so to speak – to resume airstrikes against them if they don’t immediately start “behaving” as they’re told.

He also frequently talks tough in relation to China, but the Chinese just roll their eyes and make it perfectly clear they couldn’t care less what he says.

The Russian military industrial complex is now vastly outproducing the entire deindustrialized western powers. Chinese productive capacity is an order of magnitude more potent. Even the Iranians and the North Koreans can crank out implements of war faster than the Americans and their vassals combined.

So what will the ever-weakening bully do in the face of these challenges?

In my estimation, the notion of taking on the Russians or Chinese remains utterly out of the question, even for the blithering fools at the Pentagon. So, that means Iran remains the only credible option for a bully that feels the existential need to bloody someone.

And, if it comes to that, I am increasingly convinced the Russians, Chinese, and North Koreans will act to reinforce the Iranians as needed to exact a punishing toll on the teetering American titan.

The bottom line is that I don’t see any way the current trajectory of events doesn’t end in blood and ashes for a lot of American soldiers, sailors, and aviators.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

Against the AGM-158 JASSM missile, has Russia’s Kerch Strait Bridge finally met its match?

Talk of sending Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles to Ukraine commenced last year, during the later months of the Biden administration. It was reported at the time that it would take "months" to adapt the missiles to operate with the rag-tag Ukrainian air fleet consisting of a few surviving Soviet Su-27s and MiG-29s and whatever 1980s-era boneyard F-16s NATO could cobble together and render airworthy (not many).

Of the two dozen or so F-16s shipped to Ukraine, the evidence suggests few (if any) are currently airworthy, and it is likely several have already been destroyed on the ground, in addition to the handful that are confirmed to have crashed or been shot down.

The JASSM is an air-launched cruise missile, with reputed (but dubious) stealthy properties and a 450 kg warhead. The majority of production consists of the relatively short-ranged (~350 km) AGM-158A.

The later-model AGM-158B (JASSM-ER) claims a range of 1000 km, but that has never been demonstrated in a live scenario. Although at least several dozen JASSM strikes were made against Syria and Yemen during Trump's first term, none were of the extended range variety.

The JASSM was actually considered a bust during its many years of development (1998-2009). On multiple occasions, it appeared the entire program was going to be canceled.

What was the problem? It was notoriously inaccurate!

But eventually Lockheed was able to formulate a testing regimen more likely to indicate success, and the missile finally went into production.

The US Air Force contracted to buy ~5000 units.

The US Navy declined to buy any of them.

Foreign sales have been unimpressive.

It is almost certain that the Pentagon will not throw away many (if any) of the long-range AGM-158Bs on the irreversibly lost Ukraine War. That means all that can be hoped for is a few hundred AGM-158As, with their ~350 km range.

And, in my considered opinion, the only way "Ukraine" will be able to deploy these short-range air-launched cruise missiles is if "volunteer" NATO pilots fly front-line NATO planes to deliver them.

NATO F-16s and F-15s can carry two JASSM missiles, one under each wing.

In a mission (for example) to strike the Kerch Strait Bridge, NATO aircraft (likely flying from Romania) would have to penetrate deeply into Russian air defense coverage areas extending around Crimea.

It would almost certainly require at least a dozen JASSM 450 kg warheads to make a meaningful dent in the Kerch Strait Bridge. That translates into half a dozen strike aircraft.

And, unless the NATO generals are just utterly clueless and indifferent (which they probably are), it would be a dereliction of duty to not provide a half-dozen fighters for combat air patrol.

So a dozen NATO aircraft in total — not counting any refueling tankers and ISR platforms that would be required.

I assess as VERY LOW the likelihood of success for a JASSM attack against the Kerch Strait Bridge.

I assess the risks for the attacking force to be VERY HIGH.

But I reckon they're stupid enough to give it a try all the same.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

Nevertheless, I have chosen to post here on my blog the occasional recordings I make of my musical tinkerings. This one was inspired by an old waltzy Russian folk song first recorded in 1909, in the aftermath of the Russo-Japanese War. It was entitled On the Hills of Manchuria, and was originally played with a small horn ensemble, in 3/4 waltz tempo. It is now played all around the world, and many of you may be familiar with it. There are hundreds of versions of it to be found on YouTube.

Here I offer my own arrangement of the tune as a piano solo played in a rolling 6/8 tempo, but still in the original key of E-flat minor (Most of the versions I have heard are played in E minor, and they just don’t sound right to my ear.)

Anyway, my sense of things is that the musical purists are put off when I take liberties with something considered to be perfect in its original creation. I express to them apologies in advance for my impudence.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

The medley begins with an arrangement of Come, Follow Me, and ends with Lord, I Would Follow Thee, both of which are long-time favorites in the hymnal of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Sandwiched between them is my simple interpretation of Nearer My God to Thee which is, of course, a well-known Christian hymn.

It is not a perfect performance, by any means. I’ve played it better than I did today. But if I unexpectedly shuffle off the mortal coil sometime soon, at least it won’t be lost forever.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink

My summary assessment of the missile war over Israel during the 12-day-long first act of the ongoing war between Israel et alia and Iran et alia:

The first Iranian counterstrike against Israel (14 June) began with a few hundred drones and relatively antiquated subsonic cruise missiles, whose primary mission was to soak up air to air and Iron Dome magazine depth.

Additionally, the IDF claims the Iranians fired over 200 ballistic missiles on 14 June. I think that is probably an exaggeration. But, in any case, the overwhelming majority were older Iranian missile stock and purpose-built decoys.

My sense is that no more than about three dozen strikes in the 14 June attack were carried out by later generation Iranian ballistic missile models. Most, if not all, got through unscathed.

Over the next week (15-21 June), in addition to continuing drone strikes, Iran fired, on average, ~25 ballistic missiles per day (again, according to the IDF).

By this time, reports began swirling in Israeli and western analytical circles that US/Israel air defenses had been severely attrited and were proving to be far less effective than advertised.

US land-based THAAD, SM-3 and SM-6 from US ships in the eastern Mediterranean, and Israeli Arrow anti-ballistic missile interceptors were being consumed at a prodigious rate, but achieving few, if any, interceptions of the few dozens of upper-tier ballistic missiles fired from Iran.

On 22 June, a large Iranian counterstrike took place, including ~100 ballistic missiles.

By this stage of the battle, the Iron Dome had been significantly depleted, and even the slow-flying Iranian drones were defeating it in many instances. THAAD had more or less disappeared, and the Israeli Arrow systems were attesting multiple “malfunctions” and what (based on OSINT video evidence) appeared to be almost frantic firing patterns against single-digit salvos of Iranian hypersonic missiles.

A half-dozen or more Israeli missiles were being fired without success against individual incoming Iranian missiles, which blew right through them, their plasma envelope glowing brightly in the night sky as they streaked down to their targets.

By the time a ceasefire was agreed on 24 June, Israeli and American air defense capability in the theater of battle had reached near-exhaustion, even as the Iranians had begun to employ modest but increasing numbers of impressively capable higher-end strike missiles.

There is no doubt the Iranians welcomed a break in the fighting in order to catch their breath and reorganize their own defenses. But it was the Israelis who were, by far, most desperate to stem the tide of events.

The Israelis suffered damage far in excess of anything inflicted upon them in their history. They also expended long-developed on-the-ground sabotage and intel assets within Iran, and the round-up of those exposed assets continues.

The Iranians have proven beyond dispute that they are capable of delivering large-warhead hypersonic strikes with high accuracy (<10m CEP). And while it remains to be seen how many of these top-shelf missiles they truly possess and what their rate of production is, the bottom line is that Iran has achieved a major strategic victory which carries a strong deterrence effect in its wake.

With each passing month, the Iranians will grow stronger – and the Israelis will become more desperate to try to do something about it.

I doubt making peace will be on their agenda.

Tip Jar

FYI: Over the life of this blog, several generous people have honored me with voluntary blog subscriptions and tips. But I have never required a paid subscription to read my stuff. And I never will. Everyone will always be able to read everything I write.

That said, I earmark all donations for the Schryver Family Road Trip Fund. You have thereby helped me, a few times each year, fill up both tanks on my 1997 Ford F-350, pay for two hotel nights + a pizza for the boys, and a take out dinner for me and my wife — for which I express my genuine gratitude. I hope my writing has been informative in some small manner and aided you in your quest to understand our crazy world a little better.

— Will Schryver

𝕏: @imetatronink