Iran Feeling Its Oats
Former UK ambassador and intelligence officer Alastair Crooke, on Geopolitika, writes as follows:
Over the past two weeks, two important messages were conveyed to Iran, both of which were rejected.
One came from the U.S. and the other from Israel. The former was: “We [the U.S.] will carry out a limited attack and you should accept it; or at least, give only a symbolic response.” Tehran rejected this request, saying that it would consider any attack to mark the beginning of a full-scale war.
Israel’s message, delivered through one of the various mediators, was: “We will not participate in the American attack.” It asked Iran therefore, to not target Israel. This request also met with a negative response, together with the explicit clarification that were the U.S. to commence military action, Israel would be immediately attacked. In parallel, Iran informed all states in the region that any attack launched from their territory or airspace, would result in an Iranian attack on whomsoever facilitated such U.S. military action.
These reports are actually quite astounding, for not only do they parallel perfectly what happened in the final 48 hours of the 12-Day War, but they reveal a profound degree of self-doubt and hesitation percolating in Washington and Tel Aviv.
The Pentagon and the Israel Defense Forces are coming face to face with something I have been shouting from the house tops for several years now:
There are no easy wars left to fight.
And, contrary to the perceptions of most Americans and others around the world, making war against Iran in its own backyard here in 2026 is all but certain to produce disastrous results for both the US and Israel — and has pronounced potential to spark a regional war, spiral out of control, and ultimately draw in Russia, China, and North Korea.
In any case, it must be understood that, in firmly rejecting US/Israel demands, Iran is effectively dictating terms — and this strongly confirms what many of us have argued since last summer: Iran was the clear winner of the 12-Day War. Israel knows it, the US knows it, and Iran knows it.
If the reports above are more or less accurate, then it is undeniably evident that Washington is angling for an exit from this march to madness.
But, given that the Iranians are now dictating the terms of that exit and will not agree to a reprise of the orchestrated Operation Midnight Hammer, and its fictitious B-2 bunker-busting strike, and given the massive concentration of American military power in the region, and given the huge investment in menacing bravado Trump has already made in this ill-conceived adventure, war may now be unavoidable.
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— Will Schryver