Showdown
For several years now I have been making the argument that, because American military power is so widely dispersed and diluted across the planet, the only way the United States could concentrate sufficient forces to prosecute a war against one of its three major power adversaries (Russia, China, and Iran) would be to significantly deplete its force posture relative to the other two.
That is precisely what has been happening over the course of the past few weeks in relation to the military buildup in the Persian Gulf region, in apparent preparation to launch an air campaign against Iran.
Now, granted, as I wrote yesterday, the force the US is concentrating in the Middle East via an aggressive heavy airlift operation is not sufficiently potent to sustain more than about two weeks of high-intensity war against Iran. US stockpiles of precision-guided weaponry are simply too limited to allow for a more protracted campaign.
Nor do I believe the US has the logistical and maintenance capacity to keep a large percentage of its fleet of aging aircraft air-worthy for more than about two weeks — especially when there will very likely be Iranian missiles raining down on all the US bases in the region.
And therefore, if Iran proves capable of turning it into even a month-long regional war of attrition, there is no way I can see the US being able to sustain its sortie rate, nor to tolerate the losses of men and equipment it would inevitably incur.
The US would be forced to withdraw.
It would be a catastrophic debacle for Washington, and would radically alter the global balance of powers.
Of course, a great many Americans and others around the world are convinced that the US military is so incomparably awesome that it will be able to overwhelm and subdue the Iranians within no more than 48 hours or so – and therefore the risk of “running out” of strike missiles and air defense interceptors is illusory and irrelevant.
For most people around the globe, the notion that the US could actually LOSE a war to Iran is utterly incomprehensible.
Maybe these people are right. Maybe I and others have completely overestimated Iranian capabilities. Maybe Iran will collapse like a house of cards in the face of one “shock and awe” strike by the US and Israel. Maybe they will be so intimidated by this major concentration of American force that they will, at the eleventh hour, simply accede to American demands to abandon their nuclear program, dismantle their missile force, and permit the US to install a puppet government in Tehran.
But I strongly doubt it.
In any case, the US has delivered a formidable strike force to the region. In addition, a huge proportion of US air defense capability has now been committed to this campaign in anticipation of a formidable Iranian counterstrike to an American/Israeli attack on them.
I have, for the past few years, repeatedly expressed my doubts that the US would ultimately opt to launch a war against Iran. I have been largely persuaded that clear heads in the Pentagon would recognize the very significant risks of such an undertaking, and that their well-established aversion to human and material losses would eventually dissuade them from stumbling into such a potential strategic disaster.
But, by all indications, the powers-that-be in Washington are now fully committed to enforcing their demands on Tehran. And the Iranians appear committed to standing their ground. Neither side can retreat at this juncture. So it’s gonna be a showdown.
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— Will Schryver