The Redheaded Stepsister Goes to the Ball
Against the AGM-158 JASSM missile, has Russia’s Kerch Strait Bridge finally met its match?
Talk of sending Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles to Ukraine commenced last year, during the later months of the Biden administration. It was reported at the time that it would take "months" to adapt the missiles to operate with the rag-tag Ukrainian air fleet consisting of a few surviving Soviet Su-27s and MiG-29s and whatever 1980s-era boneyard F-16s NATO could cobble together and render airworthy (not many).
Of the two dozen or so F-16s shipped to Ukraine, the evidence suggests few (if any) are currently airworthy, and it is likely several have already been destroyed on the ground, in addition to the handful that are confirmed to have crashed or been shot down.
The JASSM is an air-launched cruise missile, with reputed (but dubious) stealthy properties and a 450 kg warhead. The majority of production consists of the relatively short-ranged (~350 km) AGM-158A.
The later-model AGM-158B (JASSM-ER) claims a range of 1000 km, but that has never been demonstrated in a live scenario. Although at least several dozen JASSM strikes were made against Syria and Yemen during Trump's first term, none were of the extended range variety.
The JASSM was actually considered a bust during its many years of development (1998-2009). On multiple occasions, it appeared the entire program was going to be canceled.
What was the problem? It was notoriously inaccurate!
But eventually Lockheed was able to formulate a testing regimen more likely to indicate success, and the missile finally went into production.
The US Air Force contracted to buy ~5000 units.
The US Navy declined to buy any of them.
Foreign sales have been unimpressive.
It is almost certain that the Pentagon will not throw away many (if any) of the long-range AGM-158Bs on the irreversibly lost Ukraine War. That means all that can be hoped for is a few hundred AGM-158As, with their ~350 km range.
And, in my considered opinion, the only way "Ukraine" will be able to deploy these short-range air-launched cruise missiles is if "volunteer" NATO pilots fly front-line NATO planes to deliver them.
NATO F-16s and F-15s can carry two JASSM missiles, one under each wing.
In a mission (for example) to strike the Kerch Strait Bridge, NATO aircraft (likely flying from Romania) would have to penetrate deeply into Russian air defense coverage areas extending around Crimea.
It would almost certainly require at least a dozen JASSM 450 kg warheads to make a meaningful dent in the Kerch Strait Bridge. That translates into half a dozen strike aircraft.
And, unless the NATO generals are just utterly clueless and indifferent (which they probably are), it would be a dereliction of duty to not provide a half-dozen fighters for combat air patrol.
So a dozen NATO aircraft in total — not counting any refueling tankers and ISR platforms that would be required.
I assess as VERY LOW the likelihood of success for a JASSM attack against the Kerch Strait Bridge.
I assess the risks for the attacking force to be VERY HIGH.
But I reckon they're stupid enough to give it a try all the same.
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— Will Schryver